Originally Posted by dreadgeek
Depends. If things go their way 6 November 2012 then it will end around 21 or 22 January 2013. If things *don't* go their way then you should probably go ahead and lay in for the long haul because the GOP will *keep* up this strategy as long as they stay out of power. And that, kids, is where we find ourselves. We have one of two major parties that, in the nineties, hit on the idea that if they are out of power then they will simply spend that time making certain that nothing happens. It was the *entire* strategy of Gingrich et. al. after 1994 (that's what the impeachment hearing was about) and it's what they are doing now--making it *impossible* for the other party to govern. So when they are out of power they will behave like petulant children, hold their breath and gum up the works so that they can then blame the party in power for not getting anything done while at the same time portraying the Democrats as being more Lenin than Lenin himself. When they are *in* power they will tamp down but not eliminate the rhetoric because they *can't* eliminate it for two reasons.
The first and most salient is that Glenn Beck and Rush Limbaugh are not elected, never have to worry about winning an election and only have to make sure that the ad revenues stay up. This they do and do well. The second is that Republicans with an eye to re-election are *terrified* of their base. Absolutely live in utter fear of them and, I have to say, I don't blame them. If I were a Republican strategist I would see the problem that the GOP has which is, more or less, this--outside of elderly whites in the Deep South, they don't have much of a bloc.
1) Blacks--we're gone, we're not going back to the GOP in any significant numbers anytime soon and everything they have done in the last 18 months makes it less likely that will change. The GOP can clone Michael Steele all they want, nothing he says or does will change the fact that the GOP has lost the black vote for any foreseeable future.
2) Hispanics--while not as solidly gone as blacks, they are headed for the door. The GOP has pretty much bought and paid for the loss of the Hispanic vote.
3) Muslims--while a relatively small minority within the USA every vote counts in building a coalition and while Muslims (along with the other two groups) may not be thrilled with the Democratic party at least there's no reason to believe that the Dems are out to get them.
4) People with higher education degrees. Yes, it does actually track and does so in two dimensions. If you are a white Protestant evangelical then it is very likely that you vote Republican. If you are a white Protestant evangelical it is also unlikely that you have an advanced (post bachelors) degree. (Pew study on America and religion from 2006)
5) The large coastal cities. Now, you would *NEVER* know this if you aren't seriously wonky but the overwhelming majority of Americans live in cities. In fact, the overwhelming majority of Americans live in cities in a coastal state! Now, I want you to think about this--particularly if your zip code is in or around NYC, LA, SF Bay Area, Portland Metro, Seattle Metro, Sacramento Metro, DC Metro, Boston, Philly Atlanta--think about the people you know, the people with whom you interact with on a daily basis. I'm willing to bet that a non-trivial number of them are what we would call liberal. 81% of all Americans live in cities and most large cities are in the coastal states. Now, here's where things get interesting--the *majority* of Americans are being dictated to by the minority. What the GOP and conservatives generally claim to be doing is preserving the 'small-town' values of America. What they mean by this, of course, is an America that is blatantly Christian and while not *hostile* to non-Christians certainly willing to let them know that they are not 'real' Americans, they mean queers living in fear of our livelihoods or our lives, and non-whites adding a little ethnic flavor and color but not actually having power. So 19% of the country is trying to drag the better part of 80% of the country backward.
So, here's what the GOP has going forward.
Older whites who live in the Deep South
White Southerners
Older whites who live in the Midwest and Mountain states
Corporations and the very wealthy
That's it. That's their constituency and of those while the last group is their *true* base, they are not their *electoral* base. Their electoral base are the first three groups. In the short term, the current GOP strategy might work. In the long-term, as long as we continue to have elections, their strategy is doomed and when it occurs to the GOP leadership what they've done to themselves, I will laugh because they will only have themselves to blame. It didn't *have* to be this way but they chose this path back in '68 and now they have to ride it all the way down. That would be okay, if they weren't so damned determined to bring the house down in flames around them while doing so.
Cheers
Aj
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