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Originally Posted by Linus
Speaking of Life on Earth, is there life out there? Do you think it would be as aggressive as Hawking stated:
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I have to say that I would be absolutely stunned if there were no life anywhere else in the universe. The sheer range of environments that life can cling to here on Earth actually suggests that life would have quite a bit of opportunity to get booted up. Consider:
Living things survive in environments as diverse as the bottom of the ocean, next to volcanic vents where superheated water containing high levels of sulfure provide a habitat for tube worms and bacteria to the inside of reactor cores (there is a species of bacteria, Deinococcus radiodurans) that thrive in high radiation environments. There are salt-loving bacteria, sulfur-loving bacteria (some of which are in symbiosis with the aforementioned tube worms). So I think that life probably exists elsewhere in the universe.
I'm even willing to venture so far as to say that intelligent life probably exists somewhere else. Our primary adaptation, the reason why we are such a spectacularly successful species (so far) is our adaptability. That adaptability we call intelligence. Intelligence is SUCH a neat trick that it would quite remarkable if some other species, living in who knows what kind of environment, hadn't hit upon intelligence in the course of their evolutionary history. So would another intelligent species be as aggressive as Hawking suggests? That depends.
There's a couple of schools of thought on what to look for in another intelligent species. For one, taking a naturalistic view any extraterrestrial species we might meet would *also* be a product of evolutionary forces. Evolution doesn't necessarily favor nice guys. It doesn't necessary reward complete bastards either. In most game-theory based models what seems most stable is tit-for-tat. If you cooperate with me, I'll cooperate with you. If you stab me in the back, I'm either going to get retribution OR I'm going to let others know you're not to be trusted. Grant, for the moment, that other species would probably hit on some kind of similar solution.
One school of thought says that intelligent species pass through stages of civilization. The stages were originally proposed by a Russian named Nikolai Kardaschev and the scale is called the Kardaschev scale. It measures total energy output used by a civilization. The scale is four stages (originally three) which are:
Type 0 civilization--this is where we are right now. We are actually at about .72. More on this in a bit.
Type 1--This civilization can use all of the energy available on their planet. This could be achieved through the use of fusion power, power generated from naturally collected anti-matter or space-based solar arrays which would allow us to use much higher proportions of the Sun's energy than we do now.
Type 2--This civilization can use all of the energy available in their solar system. The most common example of this is the Dyson sphere. The idea behind a Dyson sphere is that a civilization breaks down all the other planets in the solar system and uses those to construct a sphere around its primary star. That way ALL of the star's energy is trapped in the sphere and can be put to use. The civilization lives on the inside of the sphere.
Type 3--This civilization can use all of the energy available in their local galaxy.
Another proposed scale is from Robert Zubrin. It is still a three-stage scale but instead of looking at the energy consumption, looks at how far the civilization has spread.
Type 1--Has spread across its entire planet.
Type 2--Has spread across its entire solar system.
Type 3--Has spread across its galaxy.
So, using the two scales applied to science fiction civilizations (since they are familiar enough to most people)
Human civilization is type 0 according to Kardaschev scale and Type 1 according to the Zubrin scale.
The Federation of Star Trek is a type 2 civilization using the K-scale and type 3 using the Z-scale.
Both the Galactic Republic and the Galactic Empire of Star Wars are type 3 civilizations using either scale.
The Ancients in Stargate are most likely type 3.
Here's the challenge--getting from type 0 (where we are) to type 1 (or type 1 to type 2) depending upon the scale you prefer. IF we manage to neither blow ourselves to kingdom come or create our own little Venus here then in another hundred years we'll become a Type 1 civilization according to the K-scale. I think that any civilization that manages to get that far will probably persist indefinitely. So the optimistic view would be that if we were ever to encounter a type 2 or type 3 civilization, they would simply be too mellow and evolved to conquer us.
The less optimistic view, though, is that any type 2 or type 3 civilizations we might encounter here are going to be here for a reason. I can't imagine why any civilization would go to the trouble and expense to travel possibly hundreds of light-years JUST to see the sights. If an alien civilization comes to Earth it would likely be because Earth has something that they want/need and cannot synthesize themselves. If that is the case, the best we could hope for is that they would relocate us someplace and then take the planet for themselves.
Also keep in mind that a type 2 or type 3 civilization would have technology so far advanced from ours that we would all have full and complete appreciation of Clarke's Third Law, "Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic". I think that if we were to encounter a type 3 civilization we might be very likely to fall upon our knees and worship them as gods as they would be able to do things to and with matter that we can hardly fathom. If we gave them any guff, however, sweeping us aside would be no more trouble than, say, any modern military would have sweeping aside the armies of Caesar or Hannibal. Imagine the modern US military transported back a few thousand years to the time of Caesar. They would appear as gods to them.
Hawking makes a really good point. As much as we may romanticize why the Europeans, Chinese, Persians and Ottomans set out on their voyages of exploration they were looking for resources, fortune and glory. They weren't just seeing the sights, that was an interesting by-product. Whenever or wherever those three groups found people who were inconveniently in the way they either destroyed them or conquered them. I suspect that any intelligent species that went to the trouble of traveling here would probably do the same.
One other option--and this was a point that Hawking made and other scientists also made after a couple of instances where NASA or some other group of scientists sent messages into deep space saying "here we are"--is that a civilization might detect us and decide that BEFORE we become a problem in the galaxy, they might want to just save themselves the trouble and wipe us out now while we are still not much more than monkeys with nuclear weapons, some satellites and digital-fiber optic technology. It would certainly be tempting particularly if the species were aggressive. Using the Star Trek universe as a guide, I could see the Vulcans wiping us out because it would be easier to do so now than AFTER we developed FTL travel. I could see the Romulans doing so for much the same reason. I could see the Klingons doing so because we would look like the competition and it would be a nice exercise for young Klingon warriors.
Cheers
Aj