[dreadgeek]

You know, you almost have to feel sorry for the GOP--almost. They did this to themselves, of course, so my sympathy for my former party only goes so far but I do kind of feel sorry for some of the candidates.

The three with the only *real* hope in the general election are Romney, Huntsman and Pawlenty. They also have the worst chances of making it through the primaries. None of them are *real and true* right-wing ideologues acceptable to the Tea Party. Two of them--and there's no delicate way to put this--are Mormons and while that wouldn't be a hindrance in the Democratic Party that WILL be a problem in the GOP. Evangelical Christians do not consider Mormonism a genuine Christian sect but a cult. Pawlenty is, well, Pawlenty and generates all the excitement of, say, dryer lint.

On the other side, the candidates most likely to excite the base aren't viable in the general election. Palin can win the GOP primary but she can't win the general election. She would have to pivot too much, repudiate too many of her positions and doing so would damage her brand. Bachmann is in the similar position to Palin. She is on record saying way too many wacky things to make it through the general although she could win the primary. Then there's Herman Cain who, I think, is running a vanity campaign. He has two problems--one is that he's black and while his presence at Tea Party rallies means he gives some air cover to the more racist elements, at the end of the day I don't think he can win the GOP primary.

The problem facing the GOP is that any candidate capable of passing muster with the Tea Party, the nativists and the Christian Coalition will be too far-right to make it in the general election. Anyone capable of winning the general election will have a hell of a time making it through the primary. Like I said, you almost feel sorry for the Republican Party.

Cheers
Aj