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persiphone · 11-10-2011, 05:12 PM

i extracted this comment from this article that Miss Tick posted:

http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/a...nancial-system

Understanding the puzzle of derivatives

The Commodity Futures market is one of the largest derivative trading arenas with many commodities; currencies; precious metals; and energy products listed – .

It all revolves around “Price” and “Time”. You will notice that on all traded contracts there are time periods listed noted by contract months going out up to three-years out.

Whatever the price is today (minute by minute as the contracts are traded) someone can buy or sell a contract with a 1% to 3% of the value of the contract in their account (buying or selling on margin)

Most from the public are psychologically conditioned that they have to buy first and then sell to make a profit. In derivatives that is 100% incorrect. You are making a “time” bet for higher or lower prices. If you think the value is going down, you sell a contract. If you think it is going up you buy a contract.

With the markets now primarily being traded electronically, when a buy or sell order is entered and at your price your fill usually is instant. This means you can jump in and out at your choice. If you choose it could be 10 minutes, an hour, a day, a week, or longer that you hold your position. The following is an example of the best profit in the shortest period I personally made:

It was back in 1981 and on on day when I was watching silver towards the close, it looked like it was very top heavy after moving up a few dollars over a couple of weeks. I said to myself: “I think it is going to collapse in the last few minutes before the close. It was 4-minutes to the close and I at that time having an account balance of about $32,000 slapped in two orders; (SELL) 35 DEC SILVERS at Market, and (BUY) 35 DEC SILVERS (Market on Close)

Well, got filled on the 35 sell orders in about 5 seconds and in the next 4-minutes silver collapsed by 42c where my Market on close orders were filled. No more 35 derivative orders held, just accounting of the instant CASH collected on the trade. Here is the accounting: 42c X 35 = $14.7 X $5,000 ($1 value of a silver contract move) = $73,500 + $32,000 (my account balance before the trade)= $106,500 (account balance after the trade) or not bad after a 4-minute derivatives trade. Now those that had the “other side” of the trade got burnt. The commissions I was paying at that time was about $15 per contract X 35 contracts traded = $525 that went to the House and exchange that “cleared” the trade.

Most commodity contracts have active participation in the front months but the further the time goes out participation dries up and thus no liquidity to trade those contracts.

For every contract being that it is a bet on “time” will reach its expiration and delivery day. When that happens all speculators are out and those wishing to take or make delivery stay in to the last day and then the exchanges match up the “real” buyers and sellers to each other on the outstanding contracts where physical delivery of the underling commodity is made.

Come that last day the volume of contracts held dries up to usually less that 1% of what it was a few days earlier (over 99% were speculators and less than 1% actually wanted to take or make delivery)

The 600 trillion notional value is: the value of all the bets.

EXAMPLE: on the commodity futures market has a $100,000 face value of the bet and the margin requirement to hold it over night is $2,500 and day trading margin can be $1,000. As of today the “Net” contract volume is at about 289,000 contracts. So based on notional face value that is 289,000 X $100,000 = $89 billion-dollars but the “margin deposits being used is substantially less.

So that 600 trillion is the “full contract value” of all contracts being traded. That 1.5 quadrillion is when you take into account both sides of the contract. For every buyer holding a contract there is a seller holding the other side. So when counting each side 600 X 600 = 1.2 quadrillion.

Here is the “Bottom Line”:

With 99% speculators, yes it is a casino. But “who” are the primary players that are liquidating tens of billion of dollars a day from the trading activity (remember when the trade is closed in 5-minutes or 5-months it is all a “cash” accounting for the winner’s and loser’s account balances)

Well, those from the general public that tries to play this game, they get their account balances decimated to the tune of 98% of those player that participated in very short periods of time. (bought on highs; sold on lows; got stopped out or force liquidated for not having the proper margin after being depleted from quick adverse market moves)

So who are that 2% factor that takes everyone’s money to the tune of over a few trillion dollars a year (some times in a month as happened at the end of 2008) ?

The answer may surprise you. Now the House and the Exchanges get a small cut from each side. There are a few magnates on the inside track that also make good money: But the “Primary” profiteer for several decades now are: Institutional Government Fund Management.

They in so many words all subscribe to the same News Services and consulting groups. They have the fund resources in trillion dollar collective totals managed from around the globe. They can act in loose concert and roll the markets up; down; sideways and do so as fast or as slow as they wish.

The end of 2008 showed how fast they could move the markets by exercising their multi-trillion dollar trading accounts and massive contract volume they can move in and out.

At the end of 2008 in a month and a half about 25 to 30 trillion-dollars was “sucked” right out of players accounts globally that were on the wrong sides of the trades. Now some government investment funds where they were on the outside track got burnt. The primary government institutional global accounts that “were” on the inside track made a killing of several trillion dollars.
Now here is the definition of arrogance:

Government (USA) global institutional funds now after having liquidating trillions out of the playing loser’s accounts at the end of 2008, (which caused massive defaults from the loser’s who ended up with severe deficit account balances)now uses a trillion here and a trillion there of taxpayer revenue to shore-up their own casino and friendly corporate interests.

Is there a “bubble” in the derivatives market?

As of 2009, Oh yes.. You can not suck so many trillions out of others accounts at the end of 2008 without destabilizing the playing field. Commodity futures contracts back then were settled after weeding out defaults so back to normal there. I note the definition of normal is those government institutional accounts rolling the market up and down, quick and slow; as they liquidate that 98% factions cash on the trades.

The danger lies in those “Mortgage Interest Rate Swaps” where there is a substantially reduced value of the underling commodity and in some cases the contract instrument traded had no underling commodity to back it up at all(real-estate home and commercial properties)

Here the balancing act is precarious to say the least. Offsetting those contract instruments to balance out with “real” underling value market to market is a nightmare for the players.

Those trillions in bailouts to the global banks and financial institutions have primarily gone to that end.

Are they getting closer to balancing the books? Yes..

Are they there yet? No, they are about 60% there and it will take more time to balance the remainder and the beat goes on..

Walter Burien – (CTA) Commodity Trading Advisor) 1978 – 1992 and
commodity Futures Trader of 33 years.

i highlighted some key points.

11-10-2011, 05:12 PM	#860
persiphone Timed Out How Do You Identify?: femme Relationship Status: on a hedonistic hiatus Join Date: Nov 2009 Location: Permanently Banned 12/28/2011 Posts: 462 My Photo Gallery Thanks: 1,574 Thanked 1,562 Times in 380 Posts Rep Power: 0	i extracted this comment from this article that Miss Tick posted: http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/a...nancial-system Understanding the puzzle of derivatives The Commodity Futures market is one of the largest derivative trading arenas with many commodities; currencies; precious metals; and energy products listed – . It all revolves around “Price” and “Time”. You will notice that on all traded contracts there are time periods listed noted by contract months going out up to three-years out. Whatever the price is today (minute by minute as the contracts are traded) someone can buy or sell a contract with a 1% to 3% of the value of the contract in their account (buying or selling on margin) Most from the public are psychologically conditioned that they have to buy first and then sell to make a profit. In derivatives that is 100% incorrect. You are making a “time” bet for higher or lower prices. If you think the value is going down, you sell a contract. If you think it is going up you buy a contract. With the markets now primarily being traded electronically, when a buy or sell order is entered and at your price your fill usually is instant. This means you can jump in and out at your choice. If you choose it could be 10 minutes, an hour, a day, a week, or longer that you hold your position. The following is an example of the best profit in the shortest period I personally made: It was back in 1981 and on on day when I was watching silver towards the close, it looked like it was very top heavy after moving up a few dollars over a couple of weeks. I said to myself: “I think it is going to collapse in the last few minutes before the close. It was 4-minutes to the close and I at that time having an account balance of about $32,000 slapped in two orders; (SELL) 35 DEC SILVERS at Market, and (BUY) 35 DEC SILVERS (Market on Close) Well, got filled on the 35 sell orders in about 5 seconds and in the next 4-minutes silver collapsed by 42c where my Market on close orders were filled. No more 35 derivative orders held, just accounting of the instant CASH collected on the trade. Here is the accounting: 42c X 35 = $14.7 X $5,000 ($1 value of a silver contract move) = $73,500 + $32,000 (my account balance before the trade)= $106,500 (account balance after the trade) or not bad after a 4-minute derivatives trade. Now those that had the “other side” of the trade got burnt. The commissions I was paying at that time was about $15 per contract X 35 contracts traded = $525 that went to the House and exchange that “cleared” the trade. Most commodity contracts have active participation in the front months but the further the time goes out participation dries up and thus no liquidity to trade those contracts. For every contract being that it is a bet on “time” will reach its expiration and delivery day. When that happens all speculators are out and those wishing to take or make delivery stay in to the last day and then the exchanges match up the “real” buyers and sellers to each other on the outstanding contracts where physical delivery of the underling commodity is made. Come that last day the volume of contracts held dries up to usually less that 1% of what it was a few days earlier (over 99% were speculators and less than 1% actually wanted to take or make delivery) The 600 trillion notional value is: the value of all the bets. EXAMPLE: on the commodity futures market has a $100,000 face value of the bet and the margin requirement to hold it over night is $2,500 and day trading margin can be $1,000. As of today the “Net” contract volume is at about 289,000 contracts. So based on notional face value that is 289,000 X $100,000 = $89 billion-dollars but the “margin deposits being used is substantially less. So that 600 trillion is the “full contract value” of all contracts being traded. That 1.5 quadrillion is when you take into account both sides of the contract. For every buyer holding a contract there is a seller holding the other side. So when counting each side 600 X 600 = 1.2 quadrillion. Here is the “Bottom Line”: With 99% speculators, yes it is a casino. But “who” are the primary players that are liquidating tens of billion of dollars a day from the trading activity (remember when the trade is closed in 5-minutes or 5-months it is all a “cash” accounting for the winner’s and loser’s account balances) Well, those from the general public that tries to play this game, they get their account balances decimated to the tune of 98% of those player that participated in very short periods of time. (bought on highs; sold on lows; got stopped out or force liquidated for not having the proper margin after being depleted from quick adverse market moves) So who are that 2% factor that takes everyone’s money to the tune of over a few trillion dollars a year (some times in a month as happened at the end of 2008) ? The answer may surprise you. Now the House and the Exchanges get a small cut from each side. There are a few magnates on the inside track that also make good money: But the “Primary” profiteer for several decades now are: Institutional Government Fund Management. They in so many words all subscribe to the same News Services and consulting groups. They have the fund resources in trillion dollar collective totals managed from around the globe. They can act in loose concert and roll the markets up; down; sideways and do so as fast or as slow as they wish. The end of 2008 showed how fast they could move the markets by exercising their multi-trillion dollar trading accounts and massive contract volume they can move in and out. At the end of 2008 in a month and a half about 25 to 30 trillion-dollars was “sucked” right out of players accounts globally that were on the wrong sides of the trades. Now some government investment funds where they were on the outside track got burnt. The primary government institutional global accounts that “were” on the inside track made a killing of several trillion dollars. Now here is the definition of arrogance: Government (USA) global institutional funds now after having liquidating trillions out of the playing loser’s accounts at the end of 2008, (which caused massive defaults from the loser’s who ended up with severe deficit account balances)now uses a trillion here and a trillion there of taxpayer revenue to shore-up their own casino and friendly corporate interests. Is there a “bubble” in the derivatives market? As of 2009, Oh yes.. You can not suck so many trillions out of others accounts at the end of 2008 without destabilizing the playing field. Commodity futures contracts back then were settled after weeding out defaults so back to normal there. I note the definition of normal is those government institutional accounts rolling the market up and down, quick and slow; as they liquidate that 98% factions cash on the trades. The danger lies in those “Mortgage Interest Rate Swaps” where there is a substantially reduced value of the underling commodity and in some cases the contract instrument traded had no underling commodity to back it up at all(real-estate home and commercial properties) Here the balancing act is precarious to say the least. Offsetting those contract instruments to balance out with “real” underling value market to market is a nightmare for the players. Those trillions in bailouts to the global banks and financial institutions have primarily gone to that end. Are they getting closer to balancing the books? Yes.. Are they there yet? No, they are about 60% there and it will take more time to balance the remainder and the beat goes on.. Walter Burien – (CTA) Commodity Trading Advisor) 1978 – 1992 and commodity Futures Trader of 33 years. i highlighted some key points.