[*Anya*]

Originally Posted by *Anya*

As one who had my thyroid removed due to cancer (passed 10-year mark now, so considered cured) I know what to expect in Japan (and perhaps farther away) following this accident. This is a true tragedy. The aftereffects will be felt for years, for everyone.

The US also has caused its fair share of thyroid cancers due to all of the above ground testing that took place in the 1940’s and 1950’s. Obviously, this subject is near and dear to my heart and one I follow fairly regularly.

NIH and the Individual Dose and Risk Calculator for Nevada Test Site fallout
This calculator estimates the radiation dose from I-131 absorbed by your thyroid gland from nuclear tests conducted at the Nevada Test Site (NTS). The calculator estimates your risk of thyroid cancer from this exposure. This calculator also provides an estimate of probability of causation/assigned share (PC/AS) for individuals who have been diagnosed with thyroid cancer.

Testing was conducted at the NTS from 1951 through 1992. However, only the above-ground tests conducted from 1951 through 1962, and some of the underground tests conducted from 1961 through 1970, are included in this calculator.

https://ntsi131.nci.nih.gov/

I decided to go to the website and calculate what my risk was based on how many glasses of milk I drank as a kid, raised in New Jersey and this is what it calculated for me:

"Since you reported that you were diagnosed with a thyroid cancer in the year 2000, you may be interested in the likelihood that your exposure and your disease are related.

We estimate that, in a very large population of individuals with your age and sex, with exposure histories similar to yours, about 34% of all thyroid cancers diagnosed in the year 2000 would not have occurred in the absence of exposure.

This percentage represents the individual "share" of the total exposure-related increase. Thus, your "assigned share" of the estimated increase due to exposure (also loosely known as "probability of causation") is 34%."