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Old 10-22-2012, 10:20 AM   #4
BullDog
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I do look at polls, but I look at them over time and for trends. There is always the margin of error and there is always some "statistical noise" going on, but I do not think they are meaningless.

I like Nate Silver and do read him every day. If you really want to geek out on the numbers, his article today is awesome.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/

His bottom line for today:

"There remains an outside chance that the race will break clearly toward one or the other candidate, after the third debate on Monday or because of some intervening news event, but the odds are strong that we will wake up on Nov. 6 with a reasonable degree of doubt about the winner. For that matter, we may wake up on Nov. 7 still uncertain about who won.

Nonetheless, stipulating that the race is clearly very close is not an adequate substitute for placing any kinds of odds on it at all. And the central premise behind why we see Mr. Obama as the modest favorite is very simple: he seems to hold a slight advantage right now in enough states to carry 270 electoral votes."

Silver currently shows Obama with a 67.7% to win.
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