I also read Nate Silver every day, and I comb through the Real Clear Politics list of polls and their graphs, etc. And I play with one of those clickable electoral college maps somewhat obsessively. Not counting reading Politico and the papers. And it's not reassuring. Bulldog's summary is where I am. I think Silver is optimistic unfortunately. Based on what? I don't know.
What bothers me is that I heard someone talk about how many states have ended up actually coming in more than four points from how they polled. So we have swing states polling at 1 and 2 point differences. That doesn't mean anything. Heck we are calling four point leads as "leaning" when they may not mean a thing. Really a lot of states are in play. And anything could happen. Obama's ground game is good, but I can't possibly know if it will be enough. So I am scared.
Before the primaries, my mother, a lifelong Democrat, was disillusioned enough with Obama that she wasn't going to vote. Her disgust with Romney is what is getting her off her ass. Last time I talked to her she said, "Oh well, if Romney wins, it won't be the worst thing. He's not Bush. He won't get us in another war." She lives in Florida. She will vote cause she's an old lady and that's what old ladies do. And she will vote for Obama, but tracking her attitude toward the election has not been encouraging to me.
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