It's a little hard to go by the polls because of the question of who will actually vote. Those "likely voter" polls use different formulas to determine who is a likely voters and the tend to skew older because if you have a long history of voting you are more likely to vote. But we saw in 2008 a lot of people, especially in the African-American community, who were voting for the first time.
If voter turnout is good in Ohio, Obama will win it. While it's not impossible for Romney to win without Ohio, it's pretty unlikely. Romney has to have Florida. If Obama can take Florida, and I do not think he will unfortunately, that is pretty close to game-set-match. With a really strong voter turnout it could be a decisive victory for Obama as it was in 2008. But if turnout is low--hence all the voter suppression efforts by the Rs in PA and OH--Romney has a chance.
I think as a political party it should be time to do some soul-searching when your best electoral strategy is to make it harder for people to vote.
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