NOTE: Analyis of 7 districts can be found at link at the bottom. Article too long to post.
CALIFORNIA HOUSE
House: Democrats Risk Disaster in California's Top Two Primaries
David Wasserman May 2, 2018
Republicans badly need a few lucky breaks to hold their House majority in November. So far in 2018, it's been the opposite story — from an unfriendly new Pennsylvania map to Speaker Paul Ryan's retirement and bleak special election results. But with five weeks to go before California's June 5 primary, Democrats are at risk of squandering several seats that would otherwise appear to be golden pickup opportunities.
Democrats' path to a majority depends on California more than any other state: they have excellent chances in seven GOP seats that Hillary Clinton carried in 2016, and a few more could be long shots in a wave. But in at least four districts, Democratic over-enthusiasm has produced crowded fields that could lock Democrats out of the fall race altogether.
Under California's unorthodox "top two" primary system — first implemented in 2012 — all candidates appear on the same June primary ballot and the top two finishers, regardless of party, advance to a November runoff. In 2012, catastrophe struck Democrats when their top candidate in the new 31st CD, Pete Aguilar, took third place in the primary behind two Republicans, locking them out of a highly winnable race (Aguilar won the seat in 2014).
The same fate could befall other Democrats in 2018. In the 39th, 48th and 49th districts -- all Orange County GOP seats that voted for Clinton — the "blue wave" has generated throngs of viable Democratic candidates in districts where GOP voters traditionally make up a majority of the primary vote. And while Democrats have struggled to break out of their packs, there are at least two viable Republican candidates on the ballot in each of those races.
At the moment, Democrats face the greatest danger of a shutout in the 48th CD, where Rep. Dana Rohrabacher faces a credible challenge from former Orange County GOP chair Scott Baugh and three credible Democrats will be dividing their party's vote. But it's also possible Democrats could fail to make the fall ballot in the 39th and 49th CDs, where Reps. Ed Royce and Darrell Issa are retiring, as well as tarnished Rep. Duncan Hunter's 50th CD.
Democrats have had nightmares about "lockout" scenarios all cycle. And in some ways, the DCCC is in a paralyzing predicament. If top House Democrats don't insert themselves in races and a Democrat fails to advance to November, they would get blamed for whistling past a train wreck. But whenever they do, they risk looking like aloof meddlers and tarring their intended beneficiary as the candidate of "Beltway insiders."
The DCCC has been most assertive in the 39th CD, adding retired Navy officer Gil Cisneros to its Red to Blue list to try to help him break out of a six-Democrat pack. Democrats have also succeeded in pressuring several lower-tier candidates to drop out of races to improve their odds, including Phil Janowicz and Jay Chen in the 39th CD and Laura Oatman and Rachel Payne in the 48th CD (though it's too late to take their names off the ballot).
But over the next month, it may have no choice to take more aggressive action in the 48th and 49th CDs to avoid lockouts. That could involve engineering high-profile endorsements for one Democrat or strategically attacking certain GOP candidates with independent expenditures.
It's an unenviable task, because DCCC Chair Rep. Ben Ray Lujan and House Democrats are operating in a much different media environment than the one 2006 DCCC Chair Rep. Rahm Emanuel faced. In 2006, activist blogs were a relatively new political phenomenon and it was easier to maneuver behind the scenes. In 2018, jilted campaigns routinely leak damaging audio to The Intercept and social media, not DC, makes or breaks candidacies.
The GOP's lack of viable statewide contenders and Trump's unpopularity on the West Coast could be an existential threat to the 14 remaining Republicans in California's 53-member delegation. But the state's top-two system could throw some of them a life raft. Traditionally, the state's June electorate is much older and more Republican than its November electorate, and Democrats must increase their own voters' participation to avoid catastrophe.
Democrats' potential for Golden State gains hinges on high-stakes primaries in the seven districts below — especially those in the 39th, 48th, and 49th.
https://cookpolitical.com/analysis/h...-two-primaries