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AtLast · 06-29-2011, 07:45 AM

http://caucuses.desmoinesregister.co...publican-pack/

Iowa Poll: Romney, Bachmann lead Republican pack
© 2011, Des Moines Register and Tribune Company

Two-time candidate Mitt Romney and tea party upstart Michele Bachmann are neck and neck leading the pack, and retired pizza chief Herman Cain is in third place in a new Des Moines Register Iowa Poll of likely participants in the state’s Republican presidential caucuses.

The results are bad news for the earnest Tim Pawlenty, a former Minnesota governor who is in single digits despite a full-throttle campaign.

Romney, a former Massachusetts governor and business executive, claims 23 percent, and Bachmann, a Minnesota congresswoman and evangelical conservative, garners 22 percent. Neither has done heavy lifting in Iowa.

The rest of the Republican field is at least 12 points behind them.

Cain, a retired Georgia business executive, is the top choice for 10 percent of potential caucusgoers.

Former U.S. House Speaker Newt Gingrich, whose entire Iowa campaign team resigned in frustration two weeks ago over its perception that his efforts are half-hearted, is tied in fourth place at 7 percent with the libertarian-leaning Ron Paul, a longtime Texas congressman.

Pawlenty is at 6 percent; Rick Santorum, a former U.S. senator from Pennsylvania, 4 percent; and Jon Huntsman, a former Utah governor and ambassador to China, 2 percent.

“The surprise here is how quickly Michele Bachmann is catching on,” said Jennifer Duffy, a political analyst with the nonpartisan Cook Political Report of Washington, D.C. “To me, she’s the one to watch, not Romney.”

Campaign veterans caution that this is a very early test. They expect the race to take many twists and turns before the Iowa finish line is reached. The caucuses are scheduled for Feb. 6, 2012.

Indeed, results indicate Iowa Republicans would be receptive to additional candidates in the race. Just 14 percent of likely Republican caucusgoers say their minds are made up about their choice in the presidential race. Another 14 percent don’t have a first choice yet. Sixty-nine percent say they could be persuaded to support a candidate other than their first choice.

Those findings could encourage potential candidates now on the sidelines, such as Gov. Rick Perry of Texas or former vice presidential nominee Sarah Palin. The poll tested favorability of several prominent Republicans, but the trial heat question included only those who have declared they’re running.

The telephone survey of 400 likely Republican caucusgoers was conducted June 19 to 22, roughly eight months before the Iowa caucuses, which kick off the presidential nominating process.

The poll, conducted by Selzer & Co. of Des Moines, has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points.

Pawlenty’s big effort in Iowa not helping yet
Romney’s poll-topping strength might seem to send a message that he can do well in Iowa without trying. But several politics watchers said name identification is his foundation, and his numbers might sink if he sticks with a pruned-back campaign in the Hawkeye State.

“Romney has to decide whether to start working hard,” Duffy said, “or he could see that front-runner status slip away pretty quickly.”

Iowans have seen this movie before: Four years ago, Romney led for months before he was surpassed by Mike Huckabee, who found a faithful flock in the religious right.

The other shocker, Duffy said, is the low finish for Pawlenty, who has taken part in two national debates and mounted an expensive, Iowa-centric campaign with an A-list team of consultants.

Republican pollster Randy Gutermuth pointed out that the Iowa Poll took place before Pawlenty’s television ads, direct mail and other paid voter outreach had time to penetrate.

“It’s way too early to be writing off Tim Pawlenty,” said Gutermuth, who is not affiliated with any presidential candidate. “I’m sure they’d rather be leading today, but I don’t think they’re jumping out of buildings either.”

Bachmann, who has spent 18 fewer days in Iowa this election cycle than Pawlenty and has yet to rev up her campaign machine here, has a heady favorability rating.

In the wake of her much-praised performance in the June 13 GOP debate in New Hampshire, the first of the season for her, 65 percent of potential Republican caucusgoers have a good impression of her.

And it’s an intense following: 31 percent say their opinion is very favorable, half again higher than the 19 percent who have a very favorable impression of Romney.

People like Pawlenty, too – 58 percent have a favorable impression of him – but he just isn’t as often a first or second choice for president.

Conservative? Yes, both socially, fiscally
Iowans who consider themselves tea party supporters make up 63 percent of respondents, so it fits that Bachmann, founder of the tea party caucus in Congress, is their favorite, at 29 percent. Cain, who has reached out to tea party supporters as an Atlanta-based radio host and candidate, follows with 16 percent. Romney is the favorite for 14 percent.

Less than half of poll respondents, 46 percent, identify themselves as born-again or fundamentalist Christian. In comparison, 60 percent of Republican caucusgoers in 2008 considered themselves born-again or evangelical Christians, according to an entrance poll done for the Associated Press and several television networks.

The race at this early point is close among Iowans who identify themselves as born-again Christians, with 20 percent for Bachmann and 17 percent for Romney.

Poll respondents are decidedly conservative: 75 percent consider themselves very or mostly conservative on social issues such as abortion and gay marriage, and 83 percent consider themselves very or mostly conservative on fiscal issues such as the federal budget.

“Our debt situation is just going to ruin our country if we don’t do something about it,” said Romney backer Morris Grotheer, a retired chemist from Urbandale. “I’m 82 years old, and I don’t see a very bright future.”

A new HuffPost Pollster trend estimate, filtered by the Register to include live interview polls only, shows much less support for Bachmann nationally.

Romney leads with 29 percent. Gingrich and Paul are at 9 percent, with Cain and Bachmann at 8 percent and Pawlenty at 7 percent.

About the poll
The Iowa Poll, conducted for The Des Moines Register by Selzer & Co. Inc. of Des Moines, is based on interviews with 1,831 registered Republican and independent voters in Iowa ages 18 or older, of which 400 said they would definitely or probably participate in the February 2012 Republican caucuses. Interviewers contacted individuals randomly selected from the Iowa voter registration list by telephone. The full sample of 1,831 respondents was adjusted for age and sex based on distribution among active Republican and no-party registered voters. Questions asked of the 400 likely Republican caucusgoers have a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points. Results based on smaller samples of respondents — such as by gender or age — have a larger margin of error.

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Did anyone catch Bachmann's newest gafe during an interview after her announcement about being like John Wayne- he was born in Waterloo, Iowa which he wasn't, he was born in another town in Iowa however, John Wayne Gacy, Jr. was born in Waterloo, Iowa. John Wayne Gacy, Jr. was a serial killer and rapist-

known as the Killer Clown who committed the rape and murder of 33 teenage boys and young men between 1972 and 1978. Twenty-six of Gacy's victims were buried in the crawlspace of his home, three others elsewhere on his property and four victims were discarded in a nearby river.

Gacy became known as the "Killer Clown" due to his charitable services at fundraising events, parades and children's parties where he would dress as "Pogo the Clown," a character he devised himself.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Wayne_Gacy

Does this woman ever fact check???

06-29-2011, 07:45 AM	#36
AtLast Infamous Member How Do You Identify?: Woman Preferred Pronoun?: HER - SHE Relationship Status: Relating Join Date: Nov 2009 Location: CA & AZ I'm a Snowbird Posts: 5,408 My Photo Gallery Thanks: 11,826 Thanked 10,830 Times in 3,200 Posts Rep Power: 21474856	http://caucuses.desmoinesregister.co...publican-pack/ Iowa Poll: Romney, Bachmann lead Republican pack © 2011, Des Moines Register and Tribune Company Two-time candidate Mitt Romney and tea party upstart Michele Bachmann are neck and neck leading the pack, and retired pizza chief Herman Cain is in third place in a new Des Moines Register Iowa Poll of likely participants in the state’s Republican presidential caucuses. The results are bad news for the earnest Tim Pawlenty, a former Minnesota governor who is in single digits despite a full-throttle campaign. Romney, a former Massachusetts governor and business executive, claims 23 percent, and Bachmann, a Minnesota congresswoman and evangelical conservative, garners 22 percent. Neither has done heavy lifting in Iowa. The rest of the Republican field is at least 12 points behind them. Cain, a retired Georgia business executive, is the top choice for 10 percent of potential caucusgoers. Former U.S. House Speaker Newt Gingrich, whose entire Iowa campaign team resigned in frustration two weeks ago over its perception that his efforts are half-hearted, is tied in fourth place at 7 percent with the libertarian-leaning Ron Paul, a longtime Texas congressman. Pawlenty is at 6 percent; Rick Santorum, a former U.S. senator from Pennsylvania, 4 percent; and Jon Huntsman, a former Utah governor and ambassador to China, 2 percent. “The surprise here is how quickly Michele Bachmann is catching on,” said Jennifer Duffy, a political analyst with the nonpartisan Cook Political Report of Washington, D.C. “To me, she’s the one to watch, not Romney.” Campaign veterans caution that this is a very early test. They expect the race to take many twists and turns before the Iowa finish line is reached. The caucuses are scheduled for Feb. 6, 2012. Indeed, results indicate Iowa Republicans would be receptive to additional candidates in the race. Just 14 percent of likely Republican caucusgoers say their minds are made up about their choice in the presidential race. Another 14 percent don’t have a first choice yet. Sixty-nine percent say they could be persuaded to support a candidate other than their first choice. Those findings could encourage potential candidates now on the sidelines, such as Gov. Rick Perry of Texas or former vice presidential nominee Sarah Palin. The poll tested favorability of several prominent Republicans, but the trial heat question included only those who have declared they’re running. The telephone survey of 400 likely Republican caucusgoers was conducted June 19 to 22, roughly eight months before the Iowa caucuses, which kick off the presidential nominating process. The poll, conducted by Selzer & Co. of Des Moines, has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points. Pawlenty’s big effort in Iowa not helping yet Romney’s poll-topping strength might seem to send a message that he can do well in Iowa without trying. But several politics watchers said name identification is his foundation, and his numbers might sink if he sticks with a pruned-back campaign in the Hawkeye State. “Romney has to decide whether to start working hard,” Duffy said, “or he could see that front-runner status slip away pretty quickly.” Iowans have seen this movie before: Four years ago, Romney led for months before he was surpassed by Mike Huckabee, who found a faithful flock in the religious right. The other shocker, Duffy said, is the low finish for Pawlenty, who has taken part in two national debates and mounted an expensive, Iowa-centric campaign with an A-list team of consultants. Republican pollster Randy Gutermuth pointed out that the Iowa Poll took place before Pawlenty’s television ads, direct mail and other paid voter outreach had time to penetrate. “It’s way too early to be writing off Tim Pawlenty,” said Gutermuth, who is not affiliated with any presidential candidate. “I’m sure they’d rather be leading today, but I don’t think they’re jumping out of buildings either.” Bachmann, who has spent 18 fewer days in Iowa this election cycle than Pawlenty and has yet to rev up her campaign machine here, has a heady favorability rating. In the wake of her much-praised performance in the June 13 GOP debate in New Hampshire, the first of the season for her, 65 percent of potential Republican caucusgoers have a good impression of her. And it’s an intense following: 31 percent say their opinion is very favorable, half again higher than the 19 percent who have a very favorable impression of Romney. People like Pawlenty, too – 58 percent have a favorable impression of him – but he just isn’t as often a first or second choice for president. Conservative? Yes, both socially, fiscally Iowans who consider themselves tea party supporters make up 63 percent of respondents, so it fits that Bachmann, founder of the tea party caucus in Congress, is their favorite, at 29 percent. Cain, who has reached out to tea party supporters as an Atlanta-based radio host and candidate, follows with 16 percent. Romney is the favorite for 14 percent. Less than half of poll respondents, 46 percent, identify themselves as born-again or fundamentalist Christian. In comparison, 60 percent of Republican caucusgoers in 2008 considered themselves born-again or evangelical Christians, according to an entrance poll done for the Associated Press and several television networks. The race at this early point is close among Iowans who identify themselves as born-again Christians, with 20 percent for Bachmann and 17 percent for Romney. Poll respondents are decidedly conservative: 75 percent consider themselves very or mostly conservative on social issues such as abortion and gay marriage, and 83 percent consider themselves very or mostly conservative on fiscal issues such as the federal budget. “Our debt situation is just going to ruin our country if we don’t do something about it,” said Romney backer Morris Grotheer, a retired chemist from Urbandale. “I’m 82 years old, and I don’t see a very bright future.” A new HuffPost Pollster trend estimate, filtered by the Register to include live interview polls only, shows much less support for Bachmann nationally. Romney leads with 29 percent. Gingrich and Paul are at 9 percent, with Cain and Bachmann at 8 percent and Pawlenty at 7 percent. About the poll The Iowa Poll, conducted for The Des Moines Register by Selzer & Co. Inc. of Des Moines, is based on interviews with 1,831 registered Republican and independent voters in Iowa ages 18 or older, of which 400 said they would definitely or probably participate in the February 2012 Republican caucuses. Interviewers contacted individuals randomly selected from the Iowa voter registration list by telephone. The full sample of 1,831 respondents was adjusted for age and sex based on distribution among active Republican and no-party registered voters. Questions asked of the 400 likely Republican caucusgoers have a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points. Results based on smaller samples of respondents — such as by gender or age — have a larger margin of error. ----------------------------- Did anyone catch Bachmann's newest gafe during an interview after her announcement about being like John Wayne- he was born in Waterloo, Iowa which he wasn't, he was born in another town in Iowa however, John Wayne Gacy, Jr. was born in Waterloo, Iowa. John Wayne Gacy, Jr. was a serial killer and rapist- known as the Killer Clown who committed the rape and murder of 33 teenage boys and young men between 1972 and 1978. Twenty-six of Gacy's victims were buried in the crawlspace of his home, three others elsewhere on his property and four victims were discarded in a nearby river. Gacy became known as the "Killer Clown" due to his charitable services at fundraising events, parades and children's parties where he would dress as "Pogo the Clown," a character he devised himself. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Wayne_Gacy Does this woman ever fact check???