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Old 04-30-2018, 09:50 AM   #1
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Default Politics: 2018 midterm elections

It was suggested a while ago that we start another thread to keep up with all the news regarding the midterms.

There is a lot happening.

I read yesterday that Mitch McConnell is worried about Republicans losing the senate, in addition to the house.

Trump, it seems, is a millstone around Republican political necks.

Then, this morning, I read about internal squabbling at the DNC.

It left me wondering if Democrats will, once again: grab defeat from the jaws of victory.
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Old 04-30-2018, 12:39 PM   #2
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Just how big is the Democratic wave going to be this fall?

Analysis by Chris Cillizza, CNN Editor-at-large

Updated 12:36 PM ET, Wed April 25, 2018

(CNN) If you're wondering whether the 2018 midterm elections will be a Democratic wave, you're asking the wrong question. The fall contests will undoubtedly be a national referendum on Donald Trump's first two years in office and, if polling (and history) is to be believed, Democrats will reap the electoral rewards from the negative views of the President among a majority of the country.

The real question you should be asking yourself is how large will this wave be? Will it be small (15-20-seat Democratic pickup), medium (25-35-seat pickup) or large (35-plus-seat pickup)?

Reminder: Democrats need to net 23 seats to retake the House majority.


Judging by what happened in an Arizona special election on Tuesday night, the "large" wave option now looks to be very much in play.

"If the only data point you had to go on was last night's #AZ08 result, you'd think a 30-40 seat Dem House gain in Nov. would be way low," tweeted David Wasserman, the House editor of the non-partisan Cook Political Report.

Here's why.

Yes, Republican Debbie Lesko beat Democrat Hiral Tipirneni in the 8th District special election triggered by former Republican Rep. Trent Franks resignation amid claims of sexual harassment.
But, Lesko's margin -- 5.2 percentage points -- is far less than the 25 points Mitt Romney won the district by in 2012 or the 21-point margin for Trump in 2016.

In a vacuum, that result could be dismissed as simply a one-off -- a special election with two little-known candidates yadda yadda yadda. The problem is that what happened in Arizona on Tuesday -- dramatic Democratic overperformance of the party's candidate -- is far from an isolated incident.

According to CNN's own resident big brain Harry Enten, "the average improvement for the Democrats has been 17 percentage points versus the partisan baseline. That's better than any party out of power has done in the lead-up to a midterm cycle since at least 1994."

The lesson here is obvious: Driven by their distaste for Trump, the Democratic base is turning out in droves. The Republican base, fat and happy with control of the House, Senate and the White House, is less galvanized. And, loosely-affiliated partisans seem to be acting much more like Democrats than Republicans in the elections since Trump won the White House.

The threat to Republicans should also be obvious: A month removed from Democratic Rep. Conor Lamb winning a southwestern Pennsylvania seat that Trump carried by 20 points in 2016, Lesko eked out a victory in a seat where Trump won by 21.

If seats like Pennsylvania's 18th and Arizona's 8th are competitive, then the number of Republican vulnerabilities is bigger than anyone thought.

"There are 147 GOP-held House seats less Republican than #AZ08," tweeted Wasserman. "It's time to start rethinking how many of those are truly safe in November." (A bit of quick math produces this: 62% of the 237 seats Republicans will hold -- once Lesko is sworn in -- are less friendly for the GOP than Arizona's 8th.)

Tweeted The New York Times' Nate Cohn: "There are a bunch of open districts that aren't considered top-tier races by most analysts --TX-2, TX-6, FL-6, OH-16, TX-21, FL-15 -- that, by the numbers, look plausibly competitive in a wave election. On paper, they're better Dem targets than, say, AZ-8/KS-4/PA-18."

If the Republican playing field is anywhere close to that 147 number, that makes it at least twice as large as most non-partisan political handicappers currently believe it to be.

CNN rates 73 Republican seats as potentially competitive. The Cook Report puts 84 Republican districts in that competitive category while Inside Elections, another independent campaign tipsheet, has 58 competitive GOP seats.

What we know is that in a wave, seats get washed away that many people didn't even know were competitive. The larger the number of vulnerable districts, the more that could potentially get washed away.

And, from a more practical standpoint, Republicans and their aligned super PACs have only so much money to spend in 2018. The more of their own seats that come online as competitive, the more hard decisions party committees and super PACs will have to make about who gets money and who doesn't.

Simply stated: Arizona's 8th District results suggests that the coming wave is big -- and getting bigger.

https://www.cnn.com/2018/04/25/polit...rms/index.html
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Old 04-30-2018, 12:52 PM   #3
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So glad you got this up and going, Anya. I'll be reading and I've subscribed to your forum thread. It's super critical to stay committed to progress we make in the coming weeks and months ahead.

Thanks so much,
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Old 04-30-2018, 01:31 PM   #4
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2018 midterms are our only chance to survive. It is so critical that people vote and that voter suppression efforts are stopped.
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Old 04-30-2018, 02:25 PM   #5
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BullDog View Post
2018 midterms are our only chance to survive. It is so critical that people vote and that voter suppression efforts are stopped.
The area I live in is blue, true blue (NY, VT area). Anything I
can do to help folks in states at risk? Have a great deal of
open time. Money, well...that's an issue best not discussed.
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Old 04-30-2018, 05:46 PM   #6
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cathexis View Post
The area I live in is blue, true blue (NY, VT area). Anything I
can do to help folks in states at risk? Have a great deal of
open time. Money, well...that's an issue best not discussed.
This is a very good question. If I hear of anything I will pass along the info.


Quote:
Originally Posted by DapperButch View Post
Yeah, we'll probably screw it up.
No, we can't afford it! But yeah, anytime things start to look favorable for the Democrats, I too wonder how they are going to manage to screw it up.

(after close to 20 years on BF sites I have learned how to multi-quote. So proud, lol.)
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Old 05-02-2018, 11:23 AM   #7
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cathexis View Post
The area I live in is blue, true blue (NY, VT area). Anything I
can do to help folks in states at risk? Have a great deal of
open time. Money, well...that's an issue best not discussed.
I went online and googled "ways to help northern NY and VT" and got this. There are ways to help other than just money. I'm glad that you asked the question.

I think this applies to all states! Even blue states should take nothing for granted. All states have a League of Women Voters organization.

The League of Women Voters of the North Country do things like community education and assisting in registering new voters.

http://www.plattsburgh.ny.lwvnet.org

https://www.northcountrypublicradio....iberal-vermont
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"...I'm deeply concerned by recently adopted policies which punish children for their parents’ actions ... The thought that any State would seek to deter parents by inflicting such abuse on children is unconscionable."

UN Human Rights commissioner
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Old 04-30-2018, 05:25 PM   #8
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Quote:
Originally Posted by *Anya* View Post
It was suggested a while ago that we start another thread to keep up with all the news regarding the midterms.

There is a lot happening.

I read yesterday that Mitch McConnell is worried about Republicans losing the senate, in addition to the house.

Trump, it seems, is a millstone around Republican political necks.

Then, this morning, I read about internal squabbling at the DNC.

It left me wondering if Democrats will, once again: grab defeat from the jaws of victory.
Yeah, we'll probably screw it up.
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