2012 US General Election Discussions: Start to Finish

Martina · 10-21-2012, 03:02 AM

Real Clear Politics and the Romney campaign seem to think he has North Carolina. I think he will get Florida and Virginia. That makes it all about Ohio. Like that's news. But with states like Pennsylvania and Michigan moving from 8 and 7 point Obama leads to 4 and 3, and the rest truly truly ties, it would be so easy for Obama to lose. Nate Silver still says the chances of Obama willing are 67.9 percent. And he thinks Obama will win both the popular and the electoral vote. But he projects a 1.1 percent lead in popular votes.

That's just too close to call.

I used to think Obama probably had it. I now think there's no way to know till election day unless something dramatic breaks.

It really is too close to tell right now. And then there is the fear that the Gallup poll could be picking something up that the rest aren't. If they are, Gallup doesn't know what it is. they truly do not know why they are getting Romney to poll 6 and 7 pts ahead nationally when no one else is. It's like a ghost in the room though.

10-21-2012, 03:02 AM	#11
Martina Senior Member How Do You Identify?: * Join Date: Feb 2010 Location: * Posts: 4,999 My Photo Gallery Thanks: 13,409 Thanked 18,286 Times in 4,167 Posts Rep Power: 21474854	Real Clear Politics and the Romney campaign seem to think he has North Carolina. I think he will get Florida and Virginia. That makes it all about Ohio. Like that's news. But with states like Pennsylvania and Michigan moving from 8 and 7 point Obama leads to 4 and 3, and the rest truly truly ties, it would be so easy for Obama to lose. Nate Silver still says the chances of Obama willing are 67.9 percent. And he thinks Obama will win both the popular and the electoral vote. But he projects a 1.1 percent lead in popular votes. That's just too close to call. I used to think Obama probably had it. I now think there's no way to know till election day unless something dramatic breaks. It really is too close to tell right now. And then there is the fear that the Gallup poll could be picking something up that the rest aren't. If they are, Gallup doesn't know what it is. they truly do not know why they are getting Romney to poll 6 and 7 pts ahead nationally when no one else is. It's like a ghost in the room though.