2020 Presidential Election

[Martina]

Nate Silver predicts Bernie will take every state but Minnesota, Alabama and Tennessee. The polls aren't as rosy, and I think Bernie hurt himself a little lately. Still, Bernie will get a ton of delegates on Super Tuesday.

[charley]

Originally Posted by Martina

Nate Silver predicts Bernie will take every state but Minnesota, Alabama and Tennessee. The polls aren't as rosy, and I think Bernie hurt himself a little lately. Still, Bernie will get a ton of delegates on Super Tuesday.

Wel...cough...since Clyburn endorsed Biden, I think Biden will take South Carolina. (I saw Clyburn's endorsement.)

And, with Bernie's remarks re: Cuba/Castro, I doubt he will take Florida.

Btw, The Boston Globe editorial board has endorsed Warren [who I still like ], but I wish she would stop going after Bloomberg, and go after Bernie.
Bloomberg's presence is helping Bernie. So, the more she goes after Bloomberg, in a way, she is helping Bernie. I don't get her behaviour in the debates.

Even though I can relate to what Bernie says re: health care, I am concerned that if Bernie wins the nomination, Trump may get a 2nd term... just saying.

[Martina]

Endorsements don't always mean much. Everyone endorsed Trump's primary opponents, and he still got the nomination.

Florida isn't a Super Tuesday race, but I don't think it will hurt him too much. Most older Cuban Americans are Republicans. But the aging population means that Biden will probably win. Bernie does best with younger voters.

[Martina]

A poll came out today of Pennsylvania voters comparing which candidate will do best against Trump in the general election. Right now, only Bernie -- Bernie -- can win Pennsylvania. Biden ties, and everyone else loses. Pennsylvania! What is this endless bullshit about Bernie losing in the general election? No. If he gets the nomination, he will win.

But the Dems are willing to cheat Bernie out of the nomination at the Convention if he goes in winning but without a majority. They will do that. If they do, I will never vote Democratic again and will donate to progressive third party candidates when they exist. If they rob Bernie, they will lose this election.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/27/u...gtype=Homepage

[BullDog]

Originally Posted by Martina

A poll came out today of Pennsylvania voters comparing which candidate will do best against Trump in the general election. Right now, only Bernie -- Bernie -- can win Pennsylvania. Biden ties, and everyone else loses. Pennsylvania! What is this endless bullshit about Bernie losing in the general election? No. If he gets the nomination, he will win.

But the Dems are willing to cheat Bernie out of the nomination at the Convention if he goes in winning but without a majority. They will do that. If they do, I will never vote Democratic again and will donate to progressive third party candidates when they exist. If they rob Bernie, they will lose this election.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/27/u...gtype=Homepage

The head-to-head polls without any negative attacks yet against Sanders are meaningless and I already showed the preview of all the crap they have on Sanders - much of which is true - and he just gave fresh red meat with his Cuba and China remarks.

So Trump wants Bernie, the Republicans want Bernie, the Russians want Bernie, Republicans are crossing over to vote for Bernie in the primaries, very, very few Congressional Democrats want to run with him, and most Democrats other than the Bernie faithful are terrified of Bernie losing in a landslide to Trump.

The Congressional Democrats would be happy to run with him if they thought he could win and help them win, even if they disagreed with his views. Everyone loves a winner and wants to win themselves.

How much evidence do people need? Only the Bernie faithful think he can win. I guess they have some special insight that no one else in the entire world knows about.

If Sanders percentage of delegates is higher enough than anyone else then the Dems will not try to take it away. If it is close or he doesn't have the most delegates then he will lose - because they don't think he is the best candidate to win. Besides, he fights the Dems all the time and doesn't ever act like a leader of the party and then wants everything to go his way. They changed the damn Convention rules for him, just like they added all the extra info that had to be reported for the Caucuses because of him. People can go start a new party and be as relevant as Jill Stein is if they want to. Maybe the attempts at highjacking the Democratic party will stop.

Anyway, there is still a long way to go. Maybe Biden can come back. I think he is the only one who has a chance but Sanders. Maybe Bloomberg with his billions but he is dropping in the polls fast. And he complicates things for Biden so I am pissed.

Maybe Sanders will be a clear winner - either with a majority of delegates or a high enough plurality where they can't challenge him. If so, God help us all. I am having a hard time sleeping at night due to this possibility. No joke.
__________________

[BullDog]

Originally Posted by Martina

Endorsements don't always mean much. Everyone endorsed Trump's primary opponents, and he still got the nomination.

Florida isn't a Super Tuesday race, but I don't think it will hurt him too much. Most older Cuban Americans are Republicans. But the aging population means that Biden will probably win. Bernie does best with younger voters.

Jim Clyburn's endorsement isn't just any old endorsement. He is the most influential politician in South Carolina and is revered throughout the state and beyond. His remarks were very moving and powerful. That endorsement was from his heart.

[~ocean]

Originally Posted by charley

Wel...cough...since Clyburn endorsed Biden, I think Biden will take South Carolina. (I saw Clyburn's endorsement.)

And, with Bernie's remarks re: Cuba/Castro, I doubt he will take Florida.

Btw, The Boston Globe editorial board has endorsed Warren [who I still like ], but I wish she would stop going after Bloomberg, and go after Bernie.
Bloomberg's presence is helping Bernie. So, the more she goes after Bloomberg, in a way, she is helping Bernie. I don't get her behaviour in the debates.

Even though I can relate to what Bernie says re: health care, I am concerned that if Bernie wins the nomination, Trump may get a 2nd term... just saying.

she shouldn't go after ANYONE esp. her own party . they need to concentrate on the issues and not act so vicious, it lowers their intelligence.Warren will never get my vote because of her behavior.

[C0LLETTE]

"Confidence Interval: “I Think The Biden Campaign Is Doing Just Fine”

Micah Cohen
Five Thirty Eight

Personally, I like my little picked cherry but I suppose you can find anything you like out there.

[Martina]

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/28/o...gtype=Homepage

[Orema]

Originally Posted by ~ocean

she shouldn't go after ANYONE esp. her own party . they need to concentrate on the issues and not act so vicious, it lowers their intelligence.Warren will never get my vote because of her behavior.

And Warren will get my vote for her behavior. Slamming Bloomberg sealed the deal for me and she’s smart to try to position herself as a VP for Sanders since it’s unlikely she (or Bloomberg, I think) will be the Democratic nominee.

The primaries is the time to be tough with each other. We need to be united for the election, but gloves are off for the primaries.

The in fighting right now doesn’t bother me and won’t discourage me from voting.

Different strokes.

[Martina]

Wow. Biden did better than any of the polls predicted. I was hoping Bernie would make a better showing. On to Super Tuesday with fingers and toes crossed.

[charley]

Originally Posted by charley

Wel...cough...since Clyburn endorsed Biden, I think Biden will take South Carolina. (I saw Clyburn's endorsement.)

And, with Bernie's remarks re: Cuba/Castro, I doubt he will take Florida.

Btw, The Boston Globe editorial board has endorsed Warren [who I still like ], but I wish she would stop going after Bloomberg, and go after Bernie.
Bloomberg's presence is helping Bernie. So, the more she goes after Bloomberg, in a way, she is helping Bernie. I don't get her behaviour in the debates.

Even though I can relate to what Bernie says re: health care, I am concerned that if Bernie wins the nomination, Trump may get a 2nd term... just saying.

Well, Biden is sweeping delegates across the U.S. - Clyburn's endorsement had a huge effect on Biden's way to doing well throughout the southern states - as well, the effect of Buttigieg & Klobuchar dropping out and having endorsed Biden, and even Beto O'Rourke's endorsement of Biden.

In a funny way, Warren is sticking in and has said she will stay in right through to the convention. I have seen how many delegates she has taken (I think, 42 so far !), and it seems she is spoiling it against Bernie (at least in one state), although no way she can win the nomination. Considering how dismissive Bernie has been to Warren (even the time he accused her falsely of being a liar in one debate - and she confronted him about this, and he blew her off), I don't blame her for staying in and, whether deliberately or not, sticking it to Bernie. I will always like and respect her for speaking truth to power, to both Bloomberg and to Bernie. In real time, I have done the same, and yes, I have paid a price for that, but at least I sleep with a clear conscience.

And, breaking news - Bloomberg has dropped out of the presidential race - and has endorsed Biden!

[Orema]

Originally Posted by Orema

I hope Trump doesn’t take on Nikki Haley as VP. I’m not sure Trump needs Pence for the Evangelical voters anymore. Trump will get those votes, I think, based on the judges he’s already put in place—they know they can count on Trump. But, Trump needs someone whispering in his ear and if it’s not Pence for the Evangelical voters, then I wonder who would/could fill those shoes.

I imagine Haley would be seen as a voice of reason appealing to Republican and Democratic women.

Whether it’s Haley or Pence, I think we’re gonna have four more years of this.

Originally Posted by Orema

The more I think about Haley the more I can see it happening.

A Trump/Haley win in 2020 could set up Haley to run and win in 2024 as POTUS. I think Republicans would sacrifice Pence as VP in 2020 if they thought they could pull this off. Not only would they be the party to put forth the first woman of color as VP, but also as POTUS.

Haley could win in 2024 with Republican and Democratic women voters and without “the base.” Trump needs “the base” because there are Republican and Democratic voters who won’t vote for him. I think Haley would get those votes, plus more, and could ignore the demands of the base. Well, some demands.

I image resistance to this in and out of the the White House, but I think this is one way the Republicans can have control for 8 more years.

The Democrats? I’ll vote in the primary and the nominee will get my vote. That’s the best I can say about the Dems.

Earlier this week Paul Begala at CNN predicted Trump would select Nikki Haley as VP. I think this will happen now that Trump will probably go up against Biden.

I had been hoping the nominee (Biden or Sanders) would choose a woman as his running mate, but if the Democrats have to go up against Trump/Haley, then I think the only ticket that may work is a Biden/Sanders ticket with Sanders as the VP.

Still, I just don't see how we can win the 2020 election.