Same-Sex Marriage Update

[MsTinkerbelly]

Maine ballot measure on marriage equality clears hurdle, polls show voters likely to approve it
By Jacob Combs

The Kennebec Journal reports that the Maine House of Representatives today voted unanimously to indefinitely postpone a citizen initiative that would bring marriage equality to the state, freeing the measure to go directly to the ballot in November. The bill now heads to the state Senate, which is expected to take the same action.

In addition to that good news, a PPP poll from last week shows strong support for the measure going into the election, with 54 percent of respondents saying they support marriage equality and only 41 percent saying they oppose it. When presented with the exact ballot language (regarding “marriage licenses for same-sex couples that protects religious freedom by ensuring that no religion or clergy be required to perform such a marriage in violation of their religious beliefs”), respondents supported the measure by a margin of 47 percent to 32 percent.

Moreover, the PPP vote found that while Democrats and Republicans in the state had not experienced any significant changes in opinion since 2009 (when voters repealed Maine’s marriage equality law), there has been a marked shift in opinion among independent voters. In 2009, independents opposed marriage equality by a 52/46 margin; in this year’s poll, they support it by a 57/36 margin. That’s a remarkable and dramatic development in only three years, and one that could likely make the difference come election day.

As always, these numbers should be viewed cautiously: the election is several months away, and things will change as the campaign heats up. Nevertheless, PPP’s poll didn’t find the even split that many past polls have found in states considering ballot measures on marriage; rather, Maine’s numbers seem to support a clear momentum in favor of marriage. When looked at in the context of the the state’s diocese’s decision not to campaign against marriage, Maine is beginning to look like a possible game changer in November.