Political Predictions

[Dominique]

Originally Posted by Slater

I predict that Michelle "Crazy Eyes" Bachmann
OK that made me giggle. nomination. Kinda hope I'm wrong because she is way too nuts to win the general.Agreed Most of the deep pockets in the Republican party loathe her.Do they Loathe her, or are they still unable to get past a woman for president? Romney is where the money is. If he can make it through the primaries, he will win the general as long as voter turnout is sluggish. Perry is the wildcard.

I further predict that if Obama loses a second term, the long view will say pretty much what the short view has said. The administration chronically underestimated just how batshit the Republican party had become and continued to deal with them as though they were interested in being anything but obstructionist.[sad, that this is our view of *for the people*] This gave the fringe way too much power.

Good post. Thank you.

[betenoire]

Honestly, and I'm not even being silly or mean. But. I predict y'all are fucked.

[AtLast]

I predict a far more critical economic situation by the 2012 general election in which a double-dip recession occurs (within 6-8 months) and unemployment rises to depression rates or very nearly there. The influx of veterans returning from Afghanistan and not finding work will be a tipping point.

Obama will not be re-elected and a GOP administration will be eating a lot of crow because the federal government will have to apply Depression era tactics such as the WPA in order to stabilize unemployment- mainly in housing and construction sectors. There will be no other way as there will be a real threat of destabilization in our streets across the country. But this will not stop right-wing ideology continuing to grow and be more firmly in place to take down our social/entitlement programs as we come back from this crisis. There will be crisis measures taken, then "corrections" made in order for the GOP to continue on its mission to overturn any and all social programs put in place since FDR's administration.

Congress will gain Democratic seats and have a very slim majority with a GOP as president. There will not be a choice in this due to pressure from global markets and European pressure on the US as well as our being down graded further by all 3 major rating agencies due to the inaction of the present Congress during this time prior to the general.

I think that a Romney-Bachmann ticket will be elected to the Whitehouse. UGH.

I wouldn't mind being totally wrong about all of this, especially Obama not being re-elected.

[dreadgeek]

ALH:

I don't know if Romney can win the GOP primary. Think about the current GOP coalition:

1) Neo-conservatives
2) Right-Libertarians
3) Christian conservatives
4) The traditional, blue-blood Republicans
5) Tea Partiers
6) White Southerners
7) White blue-collar men

Groups 1, 2 and 4 would be just as happy to be done with groups 3, 5, 6 and 7. If it were up to 1, 2 and 4 Romney would be the nominee, Rubio would be the Veep nominee. But if 3, 5, 6 and 7 are going to turn out (and without them the GOP can't win national offices) Romney cannot be the nominee. Fundamentalist evangelicals still, to this day, consider the LDS a cult and not included in the circle of 'Christian' (they also consider Catholicism a cult). So Romney doesn't make it out of Super Tuesday. I think we're looking at Perry someone else which is probably Obama's *best* bet but even against Perry i wouldn't give Obama anything better than even odds. Hell, the only person I know he *could* beat is Palin and she's not getting the nomination.

The combination I would be concerned about, if I were a Democratic strategist, would be Huntsman-Rubio or even Huntsman-Romney. However, Huntsman has the same problem as Romney, he's a Mormon, plus an additional problem which is that Huntsman is kind of sane. Barring a dark horse, I see it as Perry-Rubio. Perry-Bachmann is too much of the crazy and she brings nothing to the ticket that Perry doesn't already bring. Rubio perhaps brings in the blue blood Republicans.

Both parties have a problem going in to 2012. The Democratic party has a demoralized base (whether that is justified or not, I won't bother with here), a weak President as standard bearer, and really horrifically bad economic numbers dragging them down. The GOP has the problem that anyone who can survive the primaries gets creamed in the general election OR loses the base because they have to pivot in order to grab independents. The farther right the Tea Party (which IS the GOP base, don't let the media fool you on this) drags the GOP, the more sharp the pivot and the greater the risk of alienating the base.

What the base *wants* to hear is that in the first year both Social Security and Medicare will be repealed, DOMA will be strengthened, DADT reinstated, the EPA and Education department disbanded and Sharia law will be made illegal. That's what they *want* to hear. But anyone running on that platform dooms themselves in the general election and cannot turn from ANY of those items lest the base bolt.

As far as how the GOP will handle things if/when they win the White House I dunno. In a different time and in a different place, I think the GOP would be forced to behave precisely how they would like to. I'm not sure that the GOP would have to do that these days. I think that, given the advantages that the government has vis a vis surveillance and given the latitude that any Republican President will be given by a Republican congress and the national media, I don't see that the GOP need do *anything* about jobs.

I say for the following reasons:

1) A GOP President (but never a Democratic one) could order anyone picked up, at any time, for any reason and held without charge for an indefinite period of time.

2) All manner of shady games can be played with voting machines and, more ominously, voting rights.

3) PROVIDED that any protests are on the West coast OR involves large numbers of non-white (read not traditionally Republican) peoples truly draconian measures to quell the protests (which will be called riots no matter how peaceful) will be approved of.

4) In the course of the first term, the newly minted POTUS will wax poetic about the churches providing relief. Anyone who does NOT want to accept the churches terms will be considered to have done that to themselves. (By terms, I mean 'convert or starve')

Cheers
Aj

Originally Posted by AtLastHome

I predict a far more critical economic situation by the 2012 general election in which a double-dip recession occurs (within 6-8 months) and unemployment rises to depression rates or very nearly there. The influx of veterans returning from Afghanistan and not finding work will be a tipping point.

Obama will not be re-elected and a GOP administration will be eating a lot of crow because the federal government will have to apply Depression era tactics such as the WPA in order to stabilize unemployment- mainly in housing and construction sectors. There will be no other way as there will be a real threat of destabilization in our streets across the country. But this will not stop right-wing ideology continuing to grow and be more firmly in place to take down our social/entitlement programs as we come back from this crisis. There will be crisis measures taken, then "corrections" made in order for the GOP to continue on its mission to overturn any and all social programs put in place since FDR's administration.

Congress will gain Democratic seats and have a very slim majority with a GOP as president. There will not be a choice in this due to pressure from global markets and European pressure on the US as well as our being down graded further by all 3 major rating agencies due to the inaction of the present Congress during this time prior to the general.

I think that a Romney-Bachmann ticket will be elected to the Whitehouse. UGH.

I wouldn't mind being totally wrong about all of this, especially Obama not being re-elected.

[Reader]

I predict Bachmann's top 2 staff will resign this morning. Also, I bet Palin will kiss Maddow on the mouth before she let's Bachmann near the VP spot.

;)

[Cin]

I don’t have any predictions really. I don’t know what to say anymore. I tell myself it really can’t get any worse no matter who is elected, but of course that isn’t true. It can and will get worse.

Obama hasn't really been very helpful. I don't think he is really a progressive he just plays one on TV. Unfortunately his inner circle is made up of representatives of corporate/financial America and his policies are crafted by those very same people. His Administration continues supporting Wall Street’s every wish.

This Administration promised to create new jobs. America needs new jobs. So what do they do? They pushed for more Free Trade Agreements claiming this would create jobs. Unfortunately these agreements have done nothing but export jobs to increase corporate profit. The TPP will be bigger and more destructive to the economy than NAFTA. Yet Obama insists it must be passed.

The policy of refusing to raise taxes on the rich, giving corporations free reign to do what they want in the pursuit of profit, letting an unrestrained Wall Street continue on its merry way, cutting social programs, busting unions and exporting jobs in the name of corporate greed continues.

Obama lacks the power to stand up to Wall Street. He continues the Republican agenda. I don’t know what difference it makes if the world’s economy is destroyed by someone who claims to hold a completely different ideology like Obama or someone who clearly enjoyed the process like Dubya.

It feels like either our next leader will play the fiddle while America’s economy and most likely the world’s burns, or he will be gleefully jumping up and down throwing gasoline on the fire. I just don’t know how much difference it will make in the end.

[AtLast]

Originally Posted by dreadgeek

ALH:

I don't know if Romney can win the GOP primary. Think about the current GOP coalition:

1) Neo-conservatives
2) Right-Libertarians
3) Christian conservatives
4) The traditional, blue-blood Republicans
5) Tea Partiers
6) White Southerners
7) White blue-collar men

Groups 1, 2 and 4 would be just as happy to be done with groups 3, 5, 6 and 7. If it were up to 1, 2 and 4 Romney would be the nominee, Rubio would be the Veep nominee. But if 3, 5, 6 and 7 are going to turn out (and without them the GOP can't win national offices) Romney cannot be the nominee. Fundamentalist evangelicals still, to this day, consider the LDS a cult and not included in the circle of 'Christian' (they also consider Catholicism a cult). So Romney doesn't make it out of Super Tuesday. I think we're looking at Perry someone else which is probably Obama's *best* bet but even against Perry i wouldn't give Obama anything better than even odds. Hell, the only person I know he *could* beat is Palin and she's not getting the nomination.

The combination I would be concerned about, if I were a Democratic strategist, would be Huntsman-Rubio or even Huntsman-Romney. However, Huntsman has the same problem as Romney, he's a Mormon, plus an additional problem which is that Huntsman is kind of sane. Barring a dark horse, I see it as Perry-Rubio. Perry-Bachmann is too much of the crazy and she brings nothing to the ticket that Perry doesn't already bring. Rubio perhaps brings in the blue blood Republicans.

Both parties have a problem going in to 2012. The Democratic party has a demoralized base (whether that is justified or not, I won't bother with here), a weak President as standard bearer, and really horrifically bad economic numbers dragging them down. The GOP has the problem that anyone who can survive the primaries gets creamed in the general election OR loses the base because they have to pivot in order to grab independents. The farther right the Tea Party (which IS the GOP base, don't let the media fool you on this) drags the GOP, the more sharp the pivot and the greater the risk of alienating the base.

What the base *wants* to hear is that in the first year both Social Security and Medicare will be repealed, DOMA will be strengthened, DADT reinstated, the EPA and Education department disbanded and Sharia law will be made illegal. That's what they *want* to hear. But anyone running on that platform dooms themselves in the general election and cannot turn from ANY of those items lest the base bolt.

As far as how the GOP will handle things if/when they win the White House I dunno. In a different time and in a different place, I think the GOP would be forced to behave precisely how they would like to. I'm not sure that the GOP would have to do that these days. I think that, given the advantages that the government has vis a vis surveillance and given the latitude that any Republican President will be given by a Republican congress and the national media, I don't see that the GOP need do *anything* about jobs.

I say for the following reasons:

1) A GOP President (but never a Democratic one) could order anyone picked up, at any time, for any reason and held without charge for an indefinite period of time.

2) All manner of shady games can be played with voting machines and, more ominously, voting rights.

3) PROVIDED that any protests are on the West coast OR involves large numbers of non-white (read not traditionally Republican) peoples truly draconian measures to quell the protests (which will be called riots no matter how peaceful) will be approved of.

4) In the course of the first term, the newly minted POTUS will wax poetic about the churches providing relief. Anyone who does NOT want to accept the churches terms will be considered to have done that to themselves. (By terms, I mean 'convert or starve')

Cheers
Aj

Oh, I so agree with so much of this- and it hurts. Where, oh, where, has liberty gone? Your analysis reminds me of just what was really going on when LBJ took civil rights legislation to the land of Dixiecrats and how that set so much of the stage we are now experiencing politically. We don't seem to remember our history well at all- when there was not a GOP in the South at all.

What you say about tyhe differences of what a Democratic president and a GOP president can do and not have it questioned is on so accurate. And we experienced so much of our civil liberties being shit on while Bush/Cheny were in office- and they were NOT questioned at all post 9/11. The very values that set the US apart from so many countries that oppress their people were just cast aside- and done so due to fear. We became so afraid, we lost all perspective. That, along with our allowing education to decline, has rendered us vulnerable to exactly the forces that you speak of. The GOP/TP types has always had a grand plan since the Civil Rights Acts to promote an ill informed, ignorant society to flourish in order to reset the equation and re-build the strength of elites. This has worked throughout every civilization on earth.

Whoops- I went off on a tangent.... Romney may very well not be able to win in the GOP primary. Which really is scary given where Obama sits with re-election.

[afixer]

Originally Posted by betenoire

Honestly, and I'm not even being silly or mean. But. I predict y'all are fucked.

I predict that you're correct on this.

[Reader]

I predict that watching this Repub debate may make me vomit....and so far I haven't even heard Bachmann speak.

[Semantics]

Originally Posted by Hunter Green

I predict that watching this Repub debate may make me vomit....and so far I haven't even heard Bachmann speak.

She laughed and it sounded like Cruella De Vil.


Newt already threw out some of his favorite phrases about Obama and class warfare and how he should be reading in the Reagan Library to find out how to fix the economy.

[Corkey]

Originally Posted by Semantics

She laughed and it sounded like Cruella De Vil.


Newt already threw out some of his favorite phrases about Obama and class warfare and how he should be reading in the Reagan Library to find out how to fix the economy.

I had to turn the channel, Bachman makes me insane with wanting to correct her whiney nasal tone, much less her misleading history.

[Reader]

Originally Posted by Corkey

I had to turn the channel, Bachman makes me insane with wanting to correct her whiney nasal tone, much less her misleading history.

OK, I'm willing to be flamed for this, but I don't care...I'd rather see the 'Not Sarah Palin Doll' as president than Bachmann or Palin.

[Reader]

Originally Posted by Semantics

She laughed and it sounded like Cruella De Vil.


Newt already threw out some of his favorite phrases about Obama and class warfare and how he should be reading in the Reagan Library to find out how to fix the economy.

Newt is a freaking pig who served his wife divorce papers while she was in the hospital after surgery. He is the picture of greed, selfishness and hedonism.

[Corkey]

Originally Posted by Hunter Green

OK, I'm willing to be flamed for this, but I don't care...I'd rather see the 'Not Sarah Palin Doll' as president than Bachmann or Palin.

Nah no flame here, I'd rather not see any of them actually be the President.

[Reader]

Nice to see all those nice white people clapping, eh?

[Scorp]

[Reader]

I hope Obama becomes a Democrat during his second term.

[Semantics]

Rachel Maddow is anchoring the MSNBC post-debate coverage.

[Reader]

Originally Posted by Semantics

Rachel Maddow is anchoring the MSNBC post-debate coverage.

Hope she took Pepto-Abysmal...

[Reader]

Oh for F*cks sake, Rick hadda out himself as an Italian. Not all Roman Catholic Italian immigrants off the boat are @ssholes like this guy.